Performance Metrics
Welcome to the Rationale Performance Metrics page! This page is designed to provide a transparent overview of the performance metrics for the trade ideas shared in Rationale research service. Here, you’ll find detailed data on trade outcomes and key patterns tracked, giving you a comprehensive picture of how our trade ideas are performing. These metrics not only reflect past results but also offer insights into the strategies and patterns that drive our trade selection.
You may click the below picture to access the whole Rationale Performance Metrics.
Metrics Explained
Total Given Trade Ideas: This number represents the cumulative total of all trade ideas generated and shared. It includes both active and inactive trades, offering a high-level view of the volume of opportunities provided.
Closed Trades: This is the count of trades that have reached either their price target or breakout /breakdown failure levels, closing the position. These closed trades serve as the primary data source for calculating win rate and win/loss ratio.
Ongoing Trades: Here, we list the trades currently active and in progress. These trades have been acted upon but have not yet reached their respective exit points.
Not Acted Yet Trade Ideas: These are trade ideas identified as promising setups that are not yet triggered. This section offers a look at potential trades still awaiting confirmation based on Rationale entry criteria.
Winner Trades: Among the closed trades, this count shows the total number of trades that achieved their price target levels, allowing us to gauge the proportion of successful calls in our closed trades.
Loser Trades: This metric shows the total number of closed trades that did not meet target levels and hit breakout /breakdown failure levels. These, alongside the winning trades, contribute to understanding the balance of outcomes.
Win Rate: Calculated as a percentage of winner trades over total closed trades, this metric highlights the overall accuracy of our trade recommendations.
Chart Pattern Occurrence and Target Hit: In this table, I track the frequency of eight key chart patterns observed in our trade setups. For each pattern, we also display the number of trades that reached their price targets, illustrating the historical effectiveness of each pattern. This data helps in assessing the reliability of specific chart formations and understanding their potential impact on trading outcomes.
These performance metrics are curated to help you make informed decisions about engaging with Rationale research service, ensuring you have clear insights into how our trade ideas and strategies are performing.
Important Reminder
Price Action Focus: The metrics provided here focus exclusively on price action, which is why you won’t find net asset value (NAV) or account-specific trading metrics. These figures are intended to reflect trade outcomes based solely on price movement, independent of individual account size or specific risk per trade.
Interpreting Win Rate: It’s important to understand that a lower win rate doesn’t equate to poor performance. With a well-managed risk-reward ratio, even win rates as low as 30%-35% can yield positive results. For example, with a 35% win rate and a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, making 100 trades would yield 70R profit from winning trades and 65R loss from losing trades, leaving you with a 5R net gain. This demonstrates how effective risk-reward management can produce positive returns, even with a lower percentage of winning trades.
Closer Failure Levels: Please note that in my trade ideas, `breakout or breakdown failure levels` are typically set closer to entry points than the `target objectives`. Since this research service is entirely price-action focused, it’s common for prices to approach these closer failure levels more often. As a result, a win rate under 50% does not imply underperformance; it’s a reflection of a strategy designed with favorable risk-reward dynamics that can still yield positive outcomes despite a higher frequency of smaller losses.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk, and individual results may vary.